*Update: This article was published in March and is based on events at that time. Most of it was actually written in February and was then updated before being published. While I am aware some things have changed since then, the overall message and my overall position, that the coronavirus may be a major public health crisis that should be taken seriously but the public hysteria and lockdowns are outrageous and self-destructive, remains the same.
It seems the world is panicking about the coronavirus at the moment, particularly in America and Europe. I have seen excessive panic and hysteria from previous infectious disease outbreaks, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything quite at this level. Perhaps the state of world affairs has something to do with it. I also have no doubt much of it has to do with fear of China. Anything Chinese is always extra scary and panic inducing. I have been living in Hong Kong through the course of the outbreak and know many people living in China. As someone living this close to the epicenter and still going about life as usual in a city where so many are doing the same, the level of fear and hysteria over the outbreak is difficult for me to comprehend.
The excessive length people have gone to try to stop the spread of the virus, particularly in the West, is absolutely absurd. Locking down entire cities and regions, shutting down all schools and restaurants, banning gatherings of more than a certain number of people (potentially unconstitutional and a violation of civil liberties in America and other Western countries that have implemented this) and closing borders and banning travelers from many parts of the world. Never in human history have such measures been implemented, despite a long history of severe and deadly outbreaks.
Few people remember the Swine Flu outbreak in 2009-10, which is thought to have infected millions of people, killed thousands and hospitalized hundreds of thousands in the United States alone. It may be true that this new virus has a higher mortality rate than Swine Flu, but to what degree is unclear, given the large number of undetected cases and people who barely show any symptoms. Even during the Spanish Influenza Outbreak in 1919, the deadliest outbreak and the most lethal virus in recent history, such measures were not implemented.
That does not change the fact that this coronavirus is undoubtedly bad. What has happened in Wuhan and Hubei Province is a humanitarian crisis, and the situation in the rest of China remains serious as the virus has spread. Perhaps much of the panic has been triggered by the impact it has had in China and the draconian measures imposed by the Chinese government. But that says as much about China as it does about the virus, as authorities are bureaucratic and disorganized and the healthcare system still very third world, particularly in places like Wuhan which are still less developed than Beijing or Shanghai. Having lived in China and paid visits to local hospitals on several occasions, I can certainly attest that China’s healthcare system lags well behind that of Western countries and is ill prepared to handle something like this. Perhaps that is why Chinese authorities felt the need to implement such measures, as they knew they could not adequately respond to such an outbreak.
The situation has worsened in many other countries, including Europe and the U.S., and the virus has spread globally. It is undeniably a public health threat that needs to be taken seriously and calls for precautions to be taken. But the direct threat this virus poses to healthy individuals is quite minimal. Even for those living near the epicenter in China and elsewhere in Asia, the direct threat from the virus and the odds of contracting it are quite minimal, while the odds of dying from it are even lower.
There is a need for comprehensive, common sense measures, but nothing on such an absurdly draconian scale. The fact of the matter is such draconian measures have already been tried and have failed to stem the spread of the virus. Places that have implemented such measures, such as Mainland China and much of Europe, have not faired any better in containing the virus than those that have not, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea. It is going to spread no matter what, and all indications suggest that it is likely here to stay, or at least stick around for quite awhile. It is something people are going to have to learn to live with, life must go on and cannot be put on hold indefinately.
It is particularly outrageous to think that a city like New York, the city that never sleeps, a city that has weathered terrorist attacks, blizzards and hurricanes and remained open, would shut all its schools, businesses and restaurants (or limit them to take out), not out of necessity but out of fear. So many other states and cities have done the same, as has much of Europe. The damage from such measures will inevitably cause far more harm than the virus itself. It deprives millions of kids of an education and other services they depend on from school, and destroys the livelihoods of millions of people who work in industries that have been shut down.
Even here in Hong Kong, such measures have not been implemented. Schools are closed but restaurants and businesses remain open and people continue going to them. On paper, the number of cases here is lower than NYC and many Western cities, but there is also less testing and underreporting from the government. Then again, while the situation here is clearly much worse than what is being reported, Hong Kong has done a pretty good job at stemming the worst of the outbreak despite its close proximity to the epicenter and bordering one of the hardest hit regions of China outside Hubei Province, and they didn’t do it with a lockdown, nor did they take very many early preventive measures. Even in major Chinese cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, restaurants and businesses have remained open, despite the situation being much worse than most of the U.S. and Europe, government underreporting aside.
I have continued to eat at local restaurants regularly. The restaurants are notably emptier (but can still get crowded) and nearly everyone on the streets is wearing a mask. Many restaurants carry hand sanitizer and are being heavily cleaned and disinfected regularly. I have visited restaurants in areas where cases of the coronavirus have been reported. One restaurant manager in Whampoa Garden, the site of the city’s first fatal case last month, was thanking patrons for coming and assured us they planned to remain open and the area was clean and safe.
The reasoning for continuing to go about business as usual is quite simple, even as the virus continues to spread. Hong Kong was ground zero during the Sars outbreak, and even then no lockdown was implemented. Even Sars only killed 10 percent of those it infected, a mortality rate comparable to that of the Spanish Flu in 1919. This new virus seems to be significantly less deadly. Most victims have been older people or have had underlying health problems.
It is deeply dismaying to see the rest of the world look to the Chinese government as a model for how to stem the outbreak and even impose harsher lockdown measures than most parts of China. In the early days of the outbreak, an article in the New York Times by an expat in Beijing complained that the Chinese government chose draconian measures that were predominantly for show instead of having an honest conversation with its people and taking basic, common sense precautions. But now it seems Western governments are doing the same, and perhaps for the same reasons. Perhaps it is an admission by American and European governments that they too are too incompetent to adequately prepare for and respond to the outbreak and that they too would rather implement draconian lockdowns just for show and infringe on peoples’ civil liberties, rather than taking proper preparations and common sense measures and having an honest conversation with their people.
Then again, with all the irrational mass panic, I am not sure the people in America and Europe would be that receptive of such a response anyway. But if there is one thing from China and elsewhere in Asia that others should look to as a role model for how to handle this, it has been the response from the general public. No country’s people have been more stoic and taken this more in stride than the one that has been the hardest hit: China. Even as their government’s response has been chaotic and disorganized, the Chinese people have for the most part taken necessary precautions in an orderly manner. The places that have been hardest hit are the ones where people have panicked the least. In most major cities across the country, despite lockdowns, there are still signs of life. Businesses and restaurants remain open and venders continue to sell goods on street corners. Even in the epicenter in Wuhan, volunteers have mobilized to help deliver food and supplies and look after each other. Here in Hong Kong, while there was a period of panic in the early weeks of the outbreak (understandably driven in part by memories of the Sars outbreak) things have settled down and people here too have largely taken things in stride and largely continued to go about business as usual.
It speaks to the differences between Asian and Western societies that the response here has been so much more rational. There is more character in Asian societies than there is in Western ones. This is something I had already observed before while living here, but the response to the coronavirus puts it more readily on display. People in this part of the world are better equipped psychologically to face adversity, and they have faced plenty of it before.
Much of the fear amongst Americans and Europeans is driven by other concerns about the state of affairs in their countries. In a time where so many people are already on edge, the coronavirus outbreak has brought everybody’s pre-existing fears to the surface. But this fear is in many ways a distraction from people’s real fears about the future of their countries, and in that way, they are only making things worse. For all the irrational mass panic and draconian measures people are taking out of fear will inevitably trigger the one thing everyone in the West fears the most: a further loss of democratic freedoms and a descent into a political and economic abyss.